Today, American people will vote for the midterms elections. In this ballot, which will renew an important part of Congress, white women’s vote might be determining and make Donald Trump’s party loose.
by Mégane Arnaud
Their names are Mary, Emily, Sarah or Nancy. They are white. They work. They have children. They live in the suburbs. They are the ones who will change the result of the midterms. Because they elected Donald Trump two years ago.
In 2016, 42% of women in general voted for Donald Trump, but a majority of white women chose the republican candidate. They were hesitant and finally they decided to trust him. So, for the midterms also, the women will play a crucial part, « because the women, first, vote more », explains Laurence Nardon, in charge of the North American program in the French Institute of International Relations and author of The United States in 100 questions.
For the moment, the polls reveal that men and women could vote very differently. The male electorate is almost equally shared between Democrats and Republicans. On the contrary, the female electorate is divided: two thirds of their votes will go to Democrats and one third to Republicans.
Why? Maybe an effect of #MeToo, and probably because of the disappointment provoked by the nomination of juge Kavanaugh in the Supreme Court despite an accusation of rape by an old classmate. Those hesitant women reject also the Président’s style, tone and aggressiveness.
So, « the question is, actually, the white women’s vote », adds Laurence Nardon. « White women do not vote necessarily Democrat, because of course they are women, but White people rather vote Republican in The United States, and so white women are at the junction of these two electoral reflexes. »
These white uncertain women will not necessarily vote for Democrats, but some of them could abstain. In a tight election, it will be decisive. According to Laurence Nordon, white women’s vote will depend on their education level and social background. « White graduated women will rather vote Democrats because they hate Trump. White not graduated women are rather populist and in favor of Donald Trump, and so could vote Republican. »